Despite the recent surge in general and biotech indices I still believe we are in the beginning of a significant correction after a 10-year bull market. If a major correction occurs in 2019, I intend to use it and increase exposure to small cap biotechs as I still believe in their long term value proposition.
With respect to stock picking, the thriving biotech IPO market created a dichotomy. On the one hand, investors have a lot to choose from as the IPO class of 2017-18 includes so many high quality biotech companies. On the other, valuations for many companies (especially the ones without clinical validation) appear to be overblown, driven by hype rather than data. Continue reading →
Readers of this blog know I have high hopes for gene therapy, a field with a checkered history but disruptive potential that may finally be ready for primetime. After two years of dramatic progress 2017 is shaping up to be a year of incremental progress, focusing more on establishing and validating results seen to date. Continue reading →
This year’s ASCO marks a second year in a row of relatively uneventful meetings, with very few groundbreaking or practice-changing data. Just like last year’s meeting, there were too many “me too” drugs targeting the same validated targets while results for truly novel MOAs were mostly underwhelming or immature. This stagnation is particularly troubling in light of the huge budgets the industry is pouring into oncology drug development, which used to be a highly capital-efficient sector.
Looking at the different vertical segments, stagnation is apparent across the board with some exception with few kinase inhibitors and BCMA CARs. Continue reading →
Despite bouncing off a 2-year low, biotech is still an unpopular sector and investors are rightfully concerned about its near-term prospects. Recent drug failures, growing pricing pressure and the potential impact of biosimilars all contribute to the negative sentiment, but the main problem is the lack of growth drivers for the remainder of 2016 (and potentially 2017). Continue reading →
After last week’s pessimistic post, this week I am focusing on potential catalysts in 2016 that could improve sentiment towards biotech as a sector.
As if to remind us late stage trials don’t always fail, last week saw positive news from three different programs, all of which are antibodies in non-oncology indications. Regeneron (REGN) and its partner Sanofi (SNY) announced excellent data in atopic dermatitis, Alder (ALDR) reported positive results in a P2b in migraine and Pfizer (PFE) had positive P3 data for its PCSK9 program.
Below are four additional clinical data readouts that (if positive) may serve as important catalysts. Continue reading →
After 5 years of a raging bull market, more than 140 IPOs and tens of billions in proceeds, there is a debate on whether the violent selloff in biotech stocks is a hiccup or the beginning of a real correction. I have no idea where the sector is heading in the coming weeks but it seems like the overall sobering experience coupled with this month’s selloff changed Wall Street’s perception around biotech. Investors are finally realizing drug development is fraught with uncertainty and that biotech is an attractive but not infallible segment, which is why I expect the correction to continue in 2016. Continue reading →
Although hematology represents a small portion of human diseases, its weight in the biotech equity markets is disproportionally high. Bluebird (BLUE), Agios (AGIO), Juno (JUNO), Kite (KITE), Cellectis (CLLS), Pharmacyclics (PCYC), Incyte (INCY), Genmab (GEN.CO), Seattle Genetics (SGEN) and Acceleron (XLRN) all derive the majority of their valuations from hematology drugs. This is also the case for larger companies such as Amgen (AMGN), Celgene (CELG) and Alexion (ALXN). Continue reading →
The recent pullback in the biotech sector hit the vast majority of small/mid cap biotechs. As a group, it is hard to argue biotech stocks are cheap right now but some stocks are becoming attractive after losing 30-50% in several months. Below are 6 companies that are approaching or already are at attractive valuations. A key theme for all 6 is that they have been sold off alongside the general market rather than for fundamental reasons. Market fluctuations in 2014 may present investors with attractive entry points. Continue reading →
2013 will be remembered as one of the strongest years for biotech IPOs, with over 30 successful offerings year to date. A lot has been written on the biotech IPO boom and what will be the long term consequences. My personal view is ambiguous. On the one hand, most if not all of the companies that went public are “IPO worthy”: They are innovative, address medical unmet needs and are run by capable management teams. On the other, I find it extremely hard to justify the valuations of many of the companies. What is even more frustrating is the fact that the ones with the most exciting technologies and belong to my coverage universe are also the most ridiculously priced. Agios (AGIO), Oncomed (OMED), Blue Bird (BLUE)and Epizyme (EPZM) are all good examples for great companies whose stocks are way too expensive. Continue reading →